The un-democratic primary

My personal take is that the process is beyond the control of the average voter or even the average activist.  The election is fixed to produce a nominee that will serve the status quo.  The Republican camp has been hard to read, so far.  The Democratic establishment candidate, however, is clearly Hillary Clinton. 

I’m not surprised that Clinton won New Hampshire last night.  New Hampshire is a tiny state, whose population is concentrated around the two urban areas of Manchester and Nashua.  In those population centers, the Democratic party has most of the characteristics of a traditional ‘machine-style’ system of patronage.  Jobs, contracts and favors are handed down from state government, through the local Mayors office and down to the ward and precinct level.  This organization is tightly controlled from the top down and is usually for sale to the highest bidder.  John Kerry bought it four years ago.  Clinton bought it this year.

Among the public, New Hampshire has a reputation for small towns, “retail” door-to-door campaigning and independent minded voters.  That image may characterize the majority of it’s voters.  However, the decisive plurality of most primary elections comes from the tightly controlled and bartered constituencies of Manchester and Nashua.  I propose that the reason New Hampshire retains it’s position as the first primary state is because of it’s arranged reputation to deliver victory to the establishment candidate.

Here in Florida, of course, our primary doesn’t matter at all.  The DNC offered the Florida Democratic Party a choice: keep our election on January 29 and award zero delegates to the convention or schedule after February 1 and face the likelihood that the race will probably be over.  The FDP didn’t actually have a choice, since the election was scheduled by the Republican controlled legislature.

Because the media does not report on such things, most people don’t even realize that the Democratic primary is not about which candidate wins which state.  It’s about how many convention delegates each candidate earns.  Candidates win delegates proportionally, based on the number of votes that they win in each state.  Based on their performance in Iowa and New Hampshire, so far, Barack Obama has earned 25 delegates, Hillary Clinton has earned 24 and John Edwards has 18.  2026 delegates are needed to secure the nomination.  The New York Times has a helpful election calendar that includes each state and the number of delegates at stake.

The buzz from CNN and the New York Times this week was first that several polls projected Clinton down 10% from Obama in New Hampshire.  When Clinton actually won New Hampshire by 3%, the same sources were quick to capitalize on the “comeback” story.  For months, Clinton has been the clear favorite in New Hampshire, largely because of her lock on the urban machine.  When Barak Obama won Iowa, it did not change the political situation in New Hampshire.  I believe that the Clinton campaign spent the last week commissioning those ‘10% down’ polls and lowering the public expectation overall.  This enabled her to make the most out of her small margin of victory and to claim the mantle of “comeback gal.”

The Democratic race will likely be concluded on Tuesday, February 5, when a record 23 states will hold their contests on the same day.  2075 delegates will be at stake.  Between then and now, there are four primaries.  The Nevada and South Carolina primaries have a total of 87 delegates at stake.  Michigain and Florida have both had their delegates stripped.  The results of those races will likely be the same as New Hampshire and Iowa.  Clinton and Obama will each gain approximately one third of the delegates.  The other candidates will split the remaining third.

Although Obama and Clinton will remain relatively even up until the Super Tuesday contest, I expect the media to spin the race in favor of Hillary Clinton.  Little attention will be paid the delegate total.  The vote percentages will be presented in a distorting manner;  South Carolina has almost twice as many voting Democrats (and delegates) as Nevada but the results of those two races will be presented with the same significance.  Finally, the results of the ‘zero-delegate’ races will be thrown around to muddy the waters.

Within that context, the Clinton war machine will swing into full gear.  In the next 30 days, she’ll probably be in a position to outspend Obama 2 to 1; and that’s exactly what she’ll do.  She’ll have twice as many ads on TV in California, Illinois, Massachusetts, New Jersey and New York.  Expect some very negative content as well.  Meanwhile, to carry her banner, she’ll hire every two-bit party hack and AME minister from Atlanta to Chicago.

When the smoke clears on February 5, it will still be close.  Obama will probably be down by less than 200 delegates.  However, because of the obscurity of the process, Hillary will be painted as the big winner.  If allowed to compete in states like Wisconsin, Texas, Pennsylvania and North Carolina, Obama would probably kick ass.  He also probably won’t get the chance.  Obama will be out of money and all of his political and financial backers will be banging on his door, telling him to give it up “for the sake of party unity.”

Mark Saturday, March 1 on your calendar.  It’s likely to be a slow news day.  Obama will concede.  Edwards and Kucinich might stick it out, if only to grab a little limelight before their next book deal comes through.  For better or worse (worse), the whole party apparatus is going to fall in line behind Hillary Clinton.  Flashback to 2004.